The St. Louis Cardinals may already be second-guessing one of their most debated moves from the offseason: signing veteran pitcher Dustin May to a $12.5 million deal. While the organization clearly committed to a rebuilding phase by trading away four of its key players for prospects, the decision to bring in May stood out as somewhat contradictory to that youth-focused strategy.
At the time, the move drew criticism from fans and analysts alike. The Cardinals appeared to be prioritizing long-term development, yet they invested in a veteran arm who had shown inconsistency and durability concerns in recent seasons. Still, because the deal was limited to just one year, the financial and long-term risk seemed manageable. The front office may have been hoping May could rediscover his form and potentially become a valuable trade asset later in the season.
However, early results suggest that gamble is not paying off.
May has struggled significantly to begin the season, continuing a troubling trend from the previous year. In 2025, he posted an ERA close to 5.00, lost 11 games, and finished with a negative WAR of -0.7—numbers that already raised concerns about his effectiveness. Unfortunately for St. Louis, his performance has worsened rather than improved.
Through his first three starts this season, May has already taken two losses and carries an ERA hovering near 10.00. His WAR remains in the negative, and opposing hitters have had little trouble figuring him out. In just over 13 innings pitched, he has allowed 21 hits and multiple home runs, indicating a lack of control and command on the mound.
This rough start has only fueled skepticism about the signing. Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly recently pointed out that while there was some logic behind taking a chance on May—especially for a rebuilding team looking for upside—the most likely outcome was always far less optimistic. The idea of “catching lightning in a bottle” hasn’t materialized, and instead, the Cardinals may be facing the downside of that risk.
Another major concern is May’s injury history. He has never pitched more than 132.1 innings in a single season, and his track record suggests durability will continue to be an issue. After missing the entire 2024 season due to surgeries on his right flexor tendon and esophagus, questions about his long-term health remain significant.
Since returning, his overall performance has been underwhelming. Across 27 appearances—most of them starts—he has posted a 5.54 ERA. His struggles have carried over into his time with St. Louis, including a particularly poor stretch in his first outings, where he allowed 13 earned runs in just over seven innings.
Taken together, these factors paint a concerning picture for the Cardinals. What was intended as a low-risk, potentially high-reward signing is quickly looking like a misstep. If May cannot turn things around soon, the team may be left regretting a move that already seemed questionable from the start.
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